The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey is conducted quarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforces during the next quarter. ManpowerGroup’s comprehensive forecast of employer hiring plans has been running for more than 55 years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employment activity in the world.
Hiring intentions improve since last quarter in 37 of 43 countries, though 41 decline year-over-year. Employers in Taiwan, the U.S., Turkey and Japan report the strongest Outlooks for the fourth quarter.
Employers believe labor market recovery will take longer than first anticipated: When asked in April 54% expected a return before April 2021, now down to 31%.
60% of employers say they will bring furloughed workers back full time, 19% will have reduced hours, 9% will not bring all workers back and 12% are not yet decided.
Employers shared what kind of changes they expect in how work will be done, over half (59%) are planning to offer flexible work options for the long-term.
The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey provides a forward-looking perspective on hiring in 43 countries and territories. The results help understand competition for talent within industries and markets and can help guide workforce management strategies. Find your local results in the list below.
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Fourth Quarter 2020 Results for all 43 countries and territories
What is in store for global labor markets?
Explore the latest labor market forecasts from one of the most trusted surveys of employment activity in the world.
Trying to identify longer-term patterns in the labor market? Then use the Graph View. The menu on the left lets you select a country and view historical national data, as well as historical results from each of the industry sectors and regions.
Each of the 43 participating countries and territories are displayed on a global map. Simply click on the country to view its latest Net Employment Outlook and a glimpse of how active the hiring pace is expected to be in the next three months.
About the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey
What is the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey?
The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey measures employers’ intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforce during the next quarter. It is the most extensive forward-looking survey of its kind, unparalleled in its size, scope and longevity. The Survey has been running for more than 55 years and is one of the most trusted indicators of labor market trends in the world.
What questions do you ask in the survey?
All the data in the survey is based on the answer to one question: How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the coming three months as compared to the current quarter?
What is meant by Net Employment Outlook?
The Net Employment Outlook is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers that expect to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. A positive Net Employment Outlook figure means that, on balance, there are more employers who expect to add to their headcount in the following three months than those who intend to reduce staff.
Does the survey provide data on planned employment changes?
The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey only measures if employers expect to hire or not and does not provide information about specific job changes. The Survey is a forecast, not a commitment, based on informed opinions from employers and hiring managers on what will likely happen in their organization in the following quarter.
How large is the sample worldwide?
The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey is based on interviews with over 58,000 public and private employers in 43 countries and territories.
How are companies selected for the survey?
Employers are selected based on the types of companies and organizations they represent. We want to ensure that our panel is representative of each participating country’s national labor market, so each country’s panel is built in proportion to that country’s overall distribution of industry sectors and organization sizes.
Who do you interview in each company?
The person we select to interview will be someone with a good overview of staffing levels and hiring intentions within their organization. Normally this will be the head of HR or an HR manager. However, in smaller organizations, that person may be a general manager or even the CEO.
Who conducts the research?
Infocorp, Ltd. is our lead research partner who analyzes data for all 43 countries and territories to ensure consistency. Infocorp also conducts the survey in 36 of the participating countries and territories. The US portion of the survey is conducted by Leede Research. Survey field work for several markets in APME (China, India, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong) is conducted via local research vendors and internal resources.
Can you explain the Margin of Error calculation?
By their very nature, surveys are imperfect measures. All surveys have a margin of error, which is largely determined by the number of interviews completed. For the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey, the minimum panel size in each country and territory is 620 to ensure a margin of error no greater than +/-3.9%. This prevents undue distortion of the data because of one respondent changing their response from one quarter to the next. No single panel member represents more than 2% of the total sample in an industry sector or region.
Why do you seasonally adjust the data?
Seasonal adjustment is a statistical process that allows the Survey data to be presented without the impact of hiring fluctuations that normally occur through the course of the year, usually as a result of various external factors, such changes in weather, traditional production cycles and public holidays. Seasonal adjustment has the effect of flattening peaks and smoothing troughs in the data to better illustrate underlying employment trends and provide a more accurate representation of the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey results.
How do you know if hiring intentions reported come to fruition?
ManpowerGroup does not track retrospective hiring trends as part of the Employment Outlook Survey, only forward-looking expectations. However, we are able to see that the Survey results do align with employment trends reported by governments and other organizations quite closely and provide one of the most robust and trusted indicators of forward-looking labor market trends in the world.
What is the best way to analyze the results? Is it better to look at quarter over quarter or year over year comparisons?
There are several ways to review the results, which are reported for 43 countries and territories, and specific industries and regions within each. The current results, including the Net Employment Outlook, provides a snapshot of employers’ expectations for the coming three months. Comparing this result to the previous quarter provides a short-term perspective of hiring expectations in a particular country or sector, while comparing to the previous year gives a longer-term view on employer intentions. The Employment Outlook Survey Data Explorer is a helpful tool to explore these trends over a ten-year period and compare regions, countries and industry sectors.